Short answer: yes, but barely, if the $11 per order is right. At $11 you keep about $1.26 per order (4.4%). The 3.1 ROAS on your dashboard doesn't match your own numbers, so check that first.
Cost per order (price 29.00)
| Line | Calculation | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue kept after refunds | 29.00 × (1 − 6%) | 27.26 |
| Product cost, net of resold returns | 7.50 × (1 − 0.06 × 0.75) | −7.16 |
| Outbound shipping, packaging, pick and pack | 4.20 + 0.60 + 1.00 | −5.80 |
| Payment fees | 29.00 × 2.9% + 0.30 | −1.14 |
| Platform fee | 29.00 × 2% | −0.58 |
| Return shipping and handling | 6% × (4.20 + 1.00) | −0.31 |
| Contribution before ads | 12.26 (42.3% of price) | |
| Ads | −11.00 | |
| Contribution after ads | 1.26 (4.4% of price) |
Two assumptions are mine. Payment and platform fees are not refunded on returns. Resellable returned mugs go back into stock at full cost.
Targets
- Break-even CPA: 12.26 per order.
- Break-even ROAS: 1 / 0.423 = 2.36.
- ROAS for a 10% margin after ads: 1 / (0.423 − 0.10) = 3.10. That is a CPA of about 9.36 at a 29.00 order.
Your ROAS figure doesn't match your ad cost
- At 29.00 per order and 11 in ads, your real ROAS is 29 / 11 = 2.64. That is above break-even (2.36) but well under the 3.10 you need for 10%.
- A dashboard ROAS of 3.1 with 11 per order would mean an average attributed order of about 34.10. That could be multi-item orders or shipping revenue.
- It could also mean the "11 per order" is spend divided by all orders, while the platform's ROAS only counts the orders it claims.
- If the 3.1 is real on a 29.00 order, ads cost about 9.35 per order, and you'd be right at a 10% margin.
- Use total revenue divided by total ad spend for the period, not the platform's number. That is your blended ROAS, and it's the one to compare to 2.36 and 3.10.
Sensitivity (change in profit per order)
- Price ±10% (±2.90): about ±2.58. This is the biggest lever. A 10% discount deeper than your usual one would wipe out your profit.
- Ad cost ±10% (±1.10): ±1.10.
- Product cost ±10% (±0.75): about ±0.72.
- Return rate +1 point: about −0.29. The refunded revenue matters far more than the return shipping.
At 4.4% net, a small rise in ad cost or returns pushes you to break-even. The ad cost per order is the number to pin down.
What to verify
- Blended ROAS and cost per order over a period with a decent number of orders. I don't know how many orders your 11 rests on.
- Whether your payment processor refunds its fee on returns. If it does, you do slightly better than shown.
- Whether the 6% return rate and the 25% unsellable share come from real data.
- Whether you charge shipping to customers. I assumed none.
- Cash flow, since you buy the stock before you sell it.
If you can get ad cost per order down to about 9.35, or raise the price about 2 to 3 dollars, you reach 10%. I can run either scenario.
Real run in an isolated folder with only this skill installed. Only the Skill and Read tools were enabled, so no command was run and no file was written. The store and all numbers are invented and the model had no access to a real store. The per-order figures were checked by hand afterwards. The currency symbol in the answer is the model's own assumption: the request gave no currency.
它做什麼
根據賣家自己提供的數字算出一單的利潤：退款之後保留下來的銷售額、商品成本（退回後還能再賣的貨會回到庫存）、運費、包材、揀貨包裝、支付與平台費用，以及退貨成本。由此得到的貢獻利潤，再推出保本 CPA 與保本 ROAS、想要的利潤率對應的目標 ROAS，以及達到目標利潤率所需的定價。判斷折扣時，它按新價格把整套模型重新算一遍，回報為了賺到同樣的總利潤需要多出多少銷量；客戶終身價值則用利潤和實測的回購率來算，不用營收，也不用沒有依據的回購率。
內建的好習慣
絕不編造數字，註明每個輸入的來源，會指出平台回報的 ROAS 與訂單金額對不上的地方，給出敏感度檢查（價格、廣告成本、商品成本、退貨率），並列出需要核實的事項。一份參考檔裡有公式與完整算例。
適合什麼場景
判斷某個商品或廣告活動是否賺錢、定價，以及決定折扣能打到多深。
低風險：純指令檔，沒有腳本，不連網、不寫檔。它是一套計算方法，不構成稅務、會計或法律意見；費率、稅務處理與平台規則因國家而異且會變，需要你自行核實後作為輸入。結果取決於你提供的數字，不是預測。它看不到你店鋪的資料，並會說明哪些輸入是假設。試用中，模型在沒有給幣別的情況下自己加了幣別符號。AIBars 原創（MIT）。已用一個虛構的保溫杯店鋪試用過一次。