Short answer: yes, but barely, if the $11 per order is right. At $11 you keep about $1.26 per order (4.4%). The 3.1 ROAS on your dashboard doesn't match your own numbers, so check that first.
Cost per order (price 29.00)
| Line | Calculation | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue kept after refunds | 29.00 × (1 − 6%) | 27.26 |
| Product cost, net of resold returns | 7.50 × (1 − 0.06 × 0.75) | −7.16 |
| Outbound shipping, packaging, pick and pack | 4.20 + 0.60 + 1.00 | −5.80 |
| Payment fees | 29.00 × 2.9% + 0.30 | −1.14 |
| Platform fee | 29.00 × 2% | −0.58 |
| Return shipping and handling | 6% × (4.20 + 1.00) | −0.31 |
| Contribution before ads | 12.26 (42.3% of price) | |
| Ads | −11.00 | |
| Contribution after ads | 1.26 (4.4% of price) |
Two assumptions are mine. Payment and platform fees are not refunded on returns. Resellable returned mugs go back into stock at full cost.
Targets
- Break-even CPA: 12.26 per order.
- Break-even ROAS: 1 / 0.423 = 2.36.
- ROAS for a 10% margin after ads: 1 / (0.423 − 0.10) = 3.10. That is a CPA of about 9.36 at a 29.00 order.
Your ROAS figure doesn't match your ad cost
- At 29.00 per order and 11 in ads, your real ROAS is 29 / 11 = 2.64. That is above break-even (2.36) but well under the 3.10 you need for 10%.
- A dashboard ROAS of 3.1 with 11 per order would mean an average attributed order of about 34.10. That could be multi-item orders or shipping revenue.
- It could also mean the "11 per order" is spend divided by all orders, while the platform's ROAS only counts the orders it claims.
- If the 3.1 is real on a 29.00 order, ads cost about 9.35 per order, and you'd be right at a 10% margin.
- Use total revenue divided by total ad spend for the period, not the platform's number. That is your blended ROAS, and it's the one to compare to 2.36 and 3.10.
Sensitivity (change in profit per order)
- Price ±10% (±2.90): about ±2.58. This is the biggest lever. A 10% discount deeper than your usual one would wipe out your profit.
- Ad cost ±10% (±1.10): ±1.10.
- Product cost ±10% (±0.75): about ±0.72.
- Return rate +1 point: about −0.29. The refunded revenue matters far more than the return shipping.
At 4.4% net, a small rise in ad cost or returns pushes you to break-even. The ad cost per order is the number to pin down.
What to verify
- Blended ROAS and cost per order over a period with a decent number of orders. I don't know how many orders your 11 rests on.
- Whether your payment processor refunds its fee on returns. If it does, you do slightly better than shown.
- Whether the 6% return rate and the 25% unsellable share come from real data.
- Whether you charge shipping to customers. I assumed none.
- Cash flow, since you buy the stock before you sell it.
If you can get ad cost per order down to about 9.35, or raise the price about 2 to 3 dollars, you reach 10%. I can run either scenario.
Real run in an isolated folder with only this skill installed. Only the Skill and Read tools were enabled, so no command was run and no file was written. The store and all numbers are invented and the model had no access to a real store. The per-order figures were checked by hand afterwards. The currency symbol in the answer is the model's own assumption: the request gave no currency.
它做什么
根据卖家自己提供的数字算出一单的利润：退款之后保留下来的销售额、商品成本（退回后还能再卖的货会回到库存）、运费、包装、拣货打包、支付和平台费用，以及退货成本。由此得到的贡献利润，再推出保本 CPA 和保本 ROAS、想要的利润率对应的目标 ROAS，以及达到目标利润率所需的定价。判断折扣时，它按新价格把整套模型重新算一遍，报告为了赚到同样的总利润需要多出多少销量；客户终身价值则用利润和实测的复购率来算，不用销售额，也不用没有依据的复购率。
内置的好习惯
绝不编造数字，注明每个输入的来源，会指出平台上报的 ROAS 与订单金额对不上的地方，给出敏感度检查（价格、广告成本、商品成本、退货率），并列出需要核实的事项。一份参考文件里有公式和完整算例。
适合什么场景
判断某个商品或广告活动是否赚钱、定价，以及决定折扣能打到多深。
低风险：纯指令文件，没有脚本，不联网、不写文件。它是一套计算方法，不构成税务、会计或法律意见；费率、税务处理和平台规则因国家而异且会变，需要你自行核实后作为输入。结果取决于你提供的数字，不是预测。它看不到你店铺的数据，并会说明哪些输入是假设。试用中，模型在没有给币种的情况下自己加了币种符号。AIBars 原创（MIT）。已用一个虚构的保温杯店铺试用过一次。