Reorder plan: order 500 units of Product A now and nothing else
That is the supplier minimum, and it costs 4,500, which uses all your cash. A is already below its reorder point. B and C have far more stock than they need.
Assumptions
- Lead time: I used the mean of your last four shipments, 22.75 days, not the 21 days quoted. The standard deviation is 3.5 days, and it is the biggest risk in the plan.
- Service level: 95% for A (z = 1.65).
- Demand: weekly sales from the last 8 weeks, converted to daily. Eight weeks is a short history, and I assumed no seasonality or promotions.
- ABC ranking: I used cost value because you didn't give selling prices.
ABC and dead stock
| SKU | Avg/week | Weekly cost value | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 148.75 | ~1,339 | A (~80%) |
| B | 21.9 | ~328 | B (~20%) |
| C | 1.25 | ~8 | C (<1%) |
- C dark blue: 120 units (720 at cost) with no sales in 100 days is dead stock. Clear it with a discount or a bundle, and don't reorder it.
- C overall: 540 units is about 430 weeks of supply, or roughly 8 years. Stop buying C and treat the rest as slow clearance.
Per-SKU plan
Product A (order now)
- Daily demand is 21.25 units, with a daily standard deviation of 5.28.
- Demand over the lead time is 21.25 × 22.75 ≈ 483 units.
- Safety stock is 1.65 × √(22.75 × 5.28² + 21.25² × 3.5²) ≈ 130 units.
- Reorder point is 483 + 130 ≈ 613 units. You have 420, so you are below it.
- Cover is 420 / 21.25 ≈ 20 days, which is less than the 22.75-day lead time.
- A order placed today is expected to arrive after you run out, by about 3 days, or roughly 60 units of lost sales. Even a perfect order can't prevent that.
- The ideal order covers the lead time plus a 30-day review period. That is 21.25 × 52.75 + 130 − 420 ≈ 830 units (about 7,470).
- Your cash covers only 500 units. That gives about 23 days of cover once it arrives, so you will need to reorder again very soon.
Product B (don't order)
- Daily demand is 3.1 units. Stock is 310 on hand plus 100 arriving, 410 in total, which is about 131 days of cover.
- Its reorder point is about 87 units, so you won't be near it for months.
- The 200-unit minimum order would only add to the overstock.
Product C (don't order)
- See the dead-stock notes above.
Cash
- The 4,500 goes entirely to A.
- To fund the 330-unit gap (about 2,970), free cash from slow stock. Stock tied up is B at 4,650 (310 units at 15) and C at 3,240 (540 at 6).
- Clearing the dark blue C (720) and part of C's remaining stock is the easiest cash to free. Hold off on B's 100 incoming units only if the supplier allows it.
Risks
- Lead-time variability: at the 27-day worst case, demand over the lead time is about 574 units, so you'd stock out about 7 days before arrival. Ask the supplier about splitting the order, or air-freighting a small top-up (about 60–100 units) to bridge the gap.
- Short history: 8 weeks is a weak basis, and an upswing or a promotion would raise the numbers.
- Supplier terms: confirm the minimum order, payment terms and any freight costs. Freight isn't in the 4,500.
What to measure next
- Actual lead time for each shipment.
- Stockout days for A.
- Weekly forecast error.
- Sell-through of the C clearance.
- Reorder A again as soon as cash allows. Don't wait for the 500 units to arrive.
If you give me selling prices and a freight cost, I can redo the ABC ranking on margin and check whether the 4,500 still buys 500 units.
Real run in an isolated folder with only this skill installed. Only the Skill and Read tools were enabled, so no command was run and no file was written. The store and all numbers are invented and the model had no access to a real store. The lead-time statistics, safety stock and reorder point were recomputed by hand afterwards and matched.
하는 일
판매 이력과 공급업체 리드타임으로 SKU(옵션별로 따로)마다 보충을 계획합니다. ABC 분류를 하고 악성 재고를 표시하며, 일평균 수요(품절일 제외), 선택한 서비스 수준에 따른 안전 재고, 재주문점, 재고 소진 일수, 발주 수량을 계산합니다. 수요 변동보다 큰 경우가 많은 리드타임 변동의 영향도 포함합니다. 이어서 추세, 계절, 프로모션, 신상품, 긴 해상 운송, 자금에 맞춰 조정하고, 증상과 가능한 원인(자주 품절, 악성 재고, 자금 압박)을 정리합니다.
출력
출처가 붙은 가정, ABC 표와 악성 재고 목록 및 제안 조치, SKU별 계획(지금 무엇을 발주할지), 약한 추정과 계획을 바꿀 수 있는 요인, 다음에 측정할 것. 숫자가 포함된 계산 예시가 스킬에 들어 있습니다.
이런 때 좋습니다
소규모 쇼핑몰의 발주 계획, 자주 품절되는 이유 찾기, 잘 안 팔리는 재고 정리.
낮은 위험:스크립트가 없는 지침 패키지로, 네트워크 접속이나 파일 쓰기가 없습니다. 계획은 예측이나 약속이 아닙니다. 수요와 입고는 불확실하며 스킬은 목표로 하는 서비스 수준을 명시합니다. 공급업체 최소 주문 수량, 운임, 통관, 보관 규정은 국가마다 다르고 바뀌므로 공급업체나 운송사에 확인하세요. 재고 시스템은 볼 수 없고 사용자가 준 숫자만 사용합니다. AIBars가 만든 오리지널(MIT). 가상의 상품 3개짜리 매장으로 한 번 시험 실행했고 통계값은 나중에 손으로 계산해 확인했습니다.