Reorder plan: order 500 units of Product A now and nothing else
That is the supplier minimum, and it costs 4,500, which uses all your cash. A is already below its reorder point. B and C have far more stock than they need.
Assumptions
- Lead time: I used the mean of your last four shipments, 22.75 days, not the 21 days quoted. The standard deviation is 3.5 days, and it is the biggest risk in the plan.
- Service level: 95% for A (z = 1.65).
- Demand: weekly sales from the last 8 weeks, converted to daily. Eight weeks is a short history, and I assumed no seasonality or promotions.
- ABC ranking: I used cost value because you didn't give selling prices.
ABC and dead stock
| SKU | Avg/week | Weekly cost value | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 148.75 | ~1,339 | A (~80%) |
| B | 21.9 | ~328 | B (~20%) |
| C | 1.25 | ~8 | C (<1%) |
- C dark blue: 120 units (720 at cost) with no sales in 100 days is dead stock. Clear it with a discount or a bundle, and don't reorder it.
- C overall: 540 units is about 430 weeks of supply, or roughly 8 years. Stop buying C and treat the rest as slow clearance.
Per-SKU plan
Product A (order now)
- Daily demand is 21.25 units, with a daily standard deviation of 5.28.
- Demand over the lead time is 21.25 × 22.75 ≈ 483 units.
- Safety stock is 1.65 × √(22.75 × 5.28² + 21.25² × 3.5²) ≈ 130 units.
- Reorder point is 483 + 130 ≈ 613 units. You have 420, so you are below it.
- Cover is 420 / 21.25 ≈ 20 days, which is less than the 22.75-day lead time.
- A order placed today is expected to arrive after you run out, by about 3 days, or roughly 60 units of lost sales. Even a perfect order can't prevent that.
- The ideal order covers the lead time plus a 30-day review period. That is 21.25 × 52.75 + 130 − 420 ≈ 830 units (about 7,470).
- Your cash covers only 500 units. That gives about 23 days of cover once it arrives, so you will need to reorder again very soon.
Product B (don't order)
- Daily demand is 3.1 units. Stock is 310 on hand plus 100 arriving, 410 in total, which is about 131 days of cover.
- Its reorder point is about 87 units, so you won't be near it for months.
- The 200-unit minimum order would only add to the overstock.
Product C (don't order)
- See the dead-stock notes above.
Cash
- The 4,500 goes entirely to A.
- To fund the 330-unit gap (about 2,970), free cash from slow stock. Stock tied up is B at 4,650 (310 units at 15) and C at 3,240 (540 at 6).
- Clearing the dark blue C (720) and part of C's remaining stock is the easiest cash to free. Hold off on B's 100 incoming units only if the supplier allows it.
Risks
- Lead-time variability: at the 27-day worst case, demand over the lead time is about 574 units, so you'd stock out about 7 days before arrival. Ask the supplier about splitting the order, or air-freighting a small top-up (about 60–100 units) to bridge the gap.
- Short history: 8 weeks is a weak basis, and an upswing or a promotion would raise the numbers.
- Supplier terms: confirm the minimum order, payment terms and any freight costs. Freight isn't in the 4,500.
What to measure next
- Actual lead time for each shipment.
- Stockout days for A.
- Weekly forecast error.
- Sell-through of the C clearance.
- Reorder A again as soon as cash allows. Don't wait for the 500 units to arrive.
If you give me selling prices and a freight cost, I can redo the ABC ranking on margin and check whether the 4,500 still buys 500 units.
Real run in an isolated folder with only this skill installed. Only the Skill and Read tools were enabled, so no command was run and no file was written. The store and all numbers are invented and the model had no access to a real store. The lead-time statistics, safety stock and reorder point were recomputed by hand afterwards and matched.
Was es macht
Plant die Nachbestellung je SKU (jede Variante einzeln) aus Verkaufshistorie und Lieferzeiten der Lieferanten. Es teilt in ABC-Klassen ein, markiert Ladenhüter und berechnet den durchschnittlichen Bedarf (ohne Tage ohne Bestand), den Sicherheitsbestand für das gewählte Servicelevel, den Meldebestand, die Reichweite in Tagen und die Bestellmenge, einschließlich der Wirkung der Lieferzeitschwankung, die oft größer ist als die Bedarfsschwankung. Danach passt es an Trend, Saison, Aktionen, neue Produkte, lange Seefracht und Liquidität an und listet Symptome mit wahrscheinlichen Ursachen (ständig ausverkauft, Ladenhüter, knappe Liquidität).
Ergebnis
Annahmen mit Quellen, eine ABC-Tabelle mit Ladenhüter-Liste und empfohlenen Maßnahmen, ein Plan je SKU mit dem, was jetzt zu bestellen ist, die schwachen Schätzungen und was den Plan ändern würde sowie was als Nächstes zu messen ist. Ein durchgerechnetes Beispiel ist im Skill enthalten.
Geeignet für
Einen Nachbestellplan für einen kleinen Shop, die Suche nach den Gründen für ständige Ausverkäufe und das Abverkaufen langsamer Ware.
Geringes Risiko: Reine Anweisungen ohne Skripte, ohne Netzwerkzugriff und ohne Dateischreiben. Ein Plan ist keine Prognose und kein Versprechen: Bedarf und Lieferung sind unsicher, und der Skill nennt das angestrebte Servicelevel. Mindestbestellmengen, Fracht, Zoll und Lagerregeln klären Sie bitte mit Lieferant oder Spediteur; sie unterscheiden sich je Land und ändern sich. Er sieht Ihr Lagersystem nicht und verwendet nur Ihre Zahlen. Originalwerk von AIBars (MIT). Einmal mit einem erfundenen Shop mit drei Produkten ausprobiert; die Kennzahlen wurden danach von Hand nachgerechnet.