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库存与补货计划 Inventory Replenishment Planning

AIBarsMITSkill 语言: 英文
协议已核对不含脚本低风险
演示真实运行记录 · claude-sonnet-5-5 · 2026年10月
I run a small store with three products and need a reorder plan. Supplier lead time is about 21 days by sea (the last four shipments took 19, 21, 24 and 27 days). I want roughly a 95% service level on the best seller. Weekly units sold over the last 8 weeks: Product A (best seller, cost 9.00): 140, 155, 128, 162, 149, 135, 170, 151. On hand 420, nothing on order. Minimum order 500. Product B (cost 15.00): 22, 18, 25, 20, 19, 27, 21, 23. On hand 310, 100 arriving in 10 days. Minimum order 200. Product C (cost 6.00): 3, 0, 2, 1, 0, 2, 1, 1. On hand 540, nothing on order. No sales of the dark blue variant (120 units) in 100 days. Cash available for the next order is 4,500. What should I order now?
Skill: inventory-replenishment-planning

Reorder plan: order 500 units of Product A now and nothing else

That is the supplier minimum, and it costs 4,500, which uses all your cash. A is already below its reorder point. B and C have far more stock than they need.

Assumptions

  • Lead time: I used the mean of your last four shipments, 22.75 days, not the 21 days quoted. The standard deviation is 3.5 days, and it is the biggest risk in the plan.
  • Service level: 95% for A (z = 1.65).
  • Demand: weekly sales from the last 8 weeks, converted to daily. Eight weeks is a short history, and I assumed no seasonality or promotions.
  • ABC ranking: I used cost value because you didn't give selling prices.

ABC and dead stock

SKU Avg/week Weekly cost value Class
A 148.75 ~1,339 A (~80%)
B 21.9 ~328 B (~20%)
C 1.25 ~8 C (<1%)
  • C dark blue: 120 units (720 at cost) with no sales in 100 days is dead stock. Clear it with a discount or a bundle, and don't reorder it.
  • C overall: 540 units is about 430 weeks of supply, or roughly 8 years. Stop buying C and treat the rest as slow clearance.

Per-SKU plan

Product A (order now)

  • Daily demand is 21.25 units, with a daily standard deviation of 5.28.
  • Demand over the lead time is 21.25 × 22.75 ≈ 483 units.
  • Safety stock is 1.65 × √(22.75 × 5.28² + 21.25² × 3.5²) ≈ 130 units.
  • Reorder point is 483 + 130 ≈ 613 units. You have 420, so you are below it.
  • Cover is 420 / 21.25 ≈ 20 days, which is less than the 22.75-day lead time.
  • A order placed today is expected to arrive after you run out, by about 3 days, or roughly 60 units of lost sales. Even a perfect order can't prevent that.
  • The ideal order covers the lead time plus a 30-day review period. That is 21.25 × 52.75 + 130 − 420 ≈ 830 units (about 7,470).
  • Your cash covers only 500 units. That gives about 23 days of cover once it arrives, so you will need to reorder again very soon.

Product B (don't order)

  • Daily demand is 3.1 units. Stock is 310 on hand plus 100 arriving, 410 in total, which is about 131 days of cover.
  • Its reorder point is about 87 units, so you won't be near it for months.
  • The 200-unit minimum order would only add to the overstock.

Product C (don't order)

  • See the dead-stock notes above.

Cash

  • The 4,500 goes entirely to A.
  • To fund the 330-unit gap (about 2,970), free cash from slow stock. Stock tied up is B at 4,650 (310 units at 15) and C at 3,240 (540 at 6).
  • Clearing the dark blue C (720) and part of C's remaining stock is the easiest cash to free. Hold off on B's 100 incoming units only if the supplier allows it.

Risks

  • Lead-time variability: at the 27-day worst case, demand over the lead time is about 574 units, so you'd stock out about 7 days before arrival. Ask the supplier about splitting the order, or air-freighting a small top-up (about 60–100 units) to bridge the gap.
  • Short history: 8 weeks is a weak basis, and an upswing or a promotion would raise the numbers.
  • Supplier terms: confirm the minimum order, payment terms and any freight costs. Freight isn't in the 4,500.

What to measure next

  • Actual lead time for each shipment.
  • Stockout days for A.
  • Weekly forecast error.
  • Sell-through of the C clearance.
  • Reorder A again as soon as cash allows. Don't wait for the 500 units to arrive.

If you give me selling prices and a freight cost, I can redo the ABC ranking on margin and check whether the 4,500 still buys 500 units.

Real run in an isolated folder with only this skill installed. Only the Skill and Read tools were enabled, so no command was run and no file was written. The store and all numbers are invented and the model had no access to a real store. The lead-time statistics, safety stock and reorder point were recomputed by hand afterwards and matched.

它做什么

根据销售记录和供应商供货周期,按单品(每个规格分开)规划补货。它做 ABC 分类,标出滞销库存,并计算日均需求(剔除缺货的日子)、按你选定的服务水平算出的安全库存、补货点、可售天数和订货量,其中包括供货周期波动的影响,它往往比需求波动更大。然后它会针对趋势、季节、促销、新品、海运长周期和现金做调整,并列出常见症状及可能原因(总是断货、滞销、现金紧张)。

输出

带来源的假设、ABC 表与滞销清单及建议处理、逐单品的计划(现在该订什么)、估计薄弱的地方以及什么会改变计划,还有接下来该测量什么。Skill 里内置了一个带数字的算例。

适合什么场景

给小店做补货计划、找出为什么总是断货,以及处理滞销库存。

说明与风险

低风险:纯指令文件,没有脚本,不联网、不写文件。计划不是预测或承诺:需求和交货都有不确定性,Skill 会写明它瞄准的服务水平。供应商起订量、运费、清关和仓储规则请向供应商或承运商确认,它们因国家而异且会变。它看不到你的库存系统,只用你给的数字。AIBars 原创(MIT)。已用一个虚构的三商品小店试用过一次,其中的统计量事后用手算核对过。